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Brexit and Devolution: More slogan than substance.

18/11/2022

 
President of European Movement UK, Lord Michael Heseltine, has delivered the Heseltine Institute's Inaugural Lecture in The Tung Auditorium at the Yoko Ono Lennon Centre in Liverpool:
Tuesday November 15 2022 
A short time ago I argued that: ‘If Boris goes Brexit goes’. Johnson was not alone in souring our relationship with Europe. The Atlanticist prejudices of Rupert Murdoch and Conrad Black using a power over our media that would never be granted to foreigners in other countries, the populism of Nigel Farage and Paul Dacre’s nationalistic editorship of the Daily Mail all contributed to the propagandist exploitation of the consequences that followed from the implementation of the EU single market.
The harmonisation of the rules and regulations that governed the European economies was one of Margaret Thatcher’s greatest achievements. To introduce one European regulation in place of 28 involved a constant flow of forms. The blame game began. Boris Johnson led the charge to Get Brexit Done.
Well, not quite. Brexit was never going to get done. Brexit was based on an undeliverable set of promises:
Get our country back
New trade deals
Bonfire of controls
End of wealth destroying regulations
Immigration controls
No border in Ireland
That was 2016.
Four Prime Ministers, four Trade Secretaries, five Foreign Secretaries, six Chancellors, six Chief Brexit negotiators and an oven-ready Brexit later, we can see the worthlessness of those promises. I must be fair. The impact of Covid and Ukraine has seriously prejudiced our living standards and those of the Western World. We hope that the worst of Covid is behind us.
The vaccine developed under the regulatory discipline of the European Medicines Agency was the first to achieve clinical approval. The agency which provided hundreds of jobs in London has now been transferred to Amsterdam because of Brexit Ukraine enjoys the support of the Western World, and to its credit we all appear ready to pay a high price for it.
However damaging to us now, the effect of covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine may be relatively short term. Brexit is not. It represents a permanent fracture of our relationship with our closest neighbours and our largest market.
It has led to queues in the hospitals and G.P.s waiting rooms, disruption to supply lines, increased prices and interest rates. It reduces our attraction as a gateway to one of the world’s largest markets and diminishes our ability to influence European decisions over great global challenges.
I followed every Conservative Prime Minister from Winston Churchill up to and including Theresa May in their support for our membership of Europe. You would expect me to be critical of Brexit but I am not alone. Recently the Daily Telegraph put the past six years into context. Under the headline “After six wasted years”.
Alistair Heath summarised the situation as follows:-
“It has been clear for years that our putrefying economy is in desperate need of shock therapy. Yet instead of addressing its many horrific pathologies, our ruling class, well served by the status quo, has stubbornly blocked radical surgery. The result has been catastrophic: Poland and Slovenia are catching up with us in terms of middle-class lifestyles, and our desperate young can’t afford to buy a home.
I quoted the first four words of the headline. Let me quote the whole headline. After six wasted years Truss is about to deliver a Brexit that actually works. The consequence of Liz Truss' seven weeks in office has an eloquence
beyond the finest oratory. Let me set out the reality of Brexit.

One pound sterling was worth 1.48 US dollars on 23 June 2016, the day of the referendum. The following day that value plummeted to 1.36 dollars. Yesterday a pound was buying 1.18 dollars. That amounts to a loss of over 20% of the pound’s value against the dollar since 2016. The pound has also lost over 12% of its value against the euro, falling from an exchange rate of over 1.30 before the referendum to 1.14 yesterday.
The London School of Economics has estimated that Brexit alone – before the effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine are accounted for - is responsible for a 6% rise in food prices. Put starkly, Brexit means that more people are unable to pay their mortgage or rent, are having to turn to food banks, or are unable to heat their homes.
The Resolution Foundation estimates that average real pay per UK worker will, by the end of the decade, be £470 lower each year - that’s a thousand pounds for an average couple. Normally, lower exchange rates have an important silver lining in that they make UK exports more affordable and increase their volume. But the signs are that – due to Brexit-induced trade barriers and red tape - this did not happen. Post-Brexit.
UK exports to the EU fell by 14% in 2021. The Centre for European Reform, has estimated that Brexit had, by the end of 2021, reduced trade in goods between the UK and the EU by 13.6% and left UK GDP 5.2% lower than it would have been had the UK stayed in the EU single market. The CER puts the Brexit hit to overall investment in the UK economy at 13.6%.
The Office for Budget Responsibility concluded that consequent upon the new trading relationship as set out in the Trade and Cooperation Agreement that came into effect on January 1 2021 British imports and exports would eventually be reduced by 15%. They further concluded that new trade deals with non-EU countries will not have a material impact on GDP. Little surprise that the Truss government did not consult them about the consequences of their budget.
I doubt if the government were consulted about the decision to build a new model of the Land Rover Defender in Slovakia. The queues in the Health service are of alarming proportions. The European doctors and nurses have gone home. The government is left trawling developing countries to replace them.
No one explained that a consequence of Brexit would be that our country - one of the world’s richest - would have to attract specialists trained by some of the world’s poorest.
The OECD in June of this year predicted that in 2023 the UK economic growth at nil would be the slowest in the G20 above only Russia. Three months later the dire energy crisis in Germany had a similar effect there. The three major credit rating agencies . crucial to UK’s borrowing costs - Moody’s, Fitch and S&P have this year all downgraded the outlook for the UK from stable to negative.
These are the judgements of independent organisations and markets and stand in stark contrast to the propaganda of Brexiteers. It was all too easy to promise a bonfire of red tape and demonise Brussels bureaucrats in a cynical exploitation of people’s anxieties and frustrations.
Only yesterday in the Times, Mark Littlewood, Director General of the Institute of Economic Affairs, a pro Brexit think tank, wrote ‘Nowhere has the failure been so stark as in the strange story of the almost complete absence of a so-called Brexit dividend.’
The simple truth is that six years on, the only significant example of that bonfire has been to allow unlimited bankers’ bonuses. Regulation is the difference between civilisation and the jungle. We can all enthuse at David Attenborough’s brilliant depiction of life red in tooth and claw where the only law is survival of the fittest.
Regulations are the codes and standards that hold modern societies together. That is why whenever the government has sought to dilute or lower the standards they uphold, civilised bodies like The National Trust, The Wildlife Trust and the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds protest at the legislative processes involved.
The Brexiteers told us new deals with faster growing markets would more than compensate for lost European trade. Six years’ later all but three of those new deals merely replicate those already negotiated by the EU. A deal with the United States has been scuppered by the government’s attempt to unilaterally override the Northern Ireland protocol.
India wants us to reverse our immigration controls as the price of a deal. There are new deals with Australia and New Zealand. The consequences for our farmers are so adverse that even a minister who helped negotiate it says the Australian deal is not good for the UK.
No wonder full implementation is delayed until the late 2030s! I am helped once again by the Sunday Telegraph - Jeremy Warner on October 30th. wrote “Brexit is irreversible, but we must strengthen economic ties with the EU”. I disagree with his irreversible gambit. Public opinion has already moved.
In October an IPSOS MORI Poll reported that 51% of the people thought that Brexit had damaged the economy whilst only 22% thought the opposite. Listen, however, to what Warner says about Brexit. He refers to Rishi Sunak’s commitment to building an economy that embraces the opportunities of Brexit.
He needs to get a move on and indeed articulate precisely what those opportunities are - for six years after Britain voted to leave the European Union all we’ve got to show for it so far is political, economic and financial chaos. From an economic perspective there has been zero payback and particularly in the area of international trade and reputation, considerable harm.
I do not accept that Brexit is irreversible.
The timescale may be unpredictable. The purpose is not.
We must start by rebuilding bridges.
We need a practical compromise over the Irish border that would restore devolved government.
We need to end the isolation of our scientists and researchers by rejoining the Horizon Europe research and innovation programme.
We should restore the right for our young people to participate in projects abroad under the EU’s Erasmus Plus programme.
In place of a Department for Exiting the EU we need a Minister with responsibility for Enhancing Relationships with the EU. That rescue operation could start with a veterinary agreement to reduce checks on food products entering the single market which would contribute to reducing tensions in Northern Ireland.
We should attack the restrictions on musicians and other UK service providers to work for short periods in the EU Each of the steps I have set out is realistic. Every step draws our self interests closer together.
The EU is still there, next door, with its market of 450 million people. We thrive only by working closely together. The question remains how to improve the governance of this country. Brexiteers said that Europe would disintegrate into its original nations.
The Euro was seen as the harbinger of civil war. The question today is whether the UK itself can survive. Sinn Fein is now the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly. The Scots Nats use identical arguments to break up the United Kingdom that underlie the Brexit case.
We need radical change in the way we govern this country. Devolution must be based on a meaningful partnership between London and the rest of England. It calls for a practical sharing of power between Edinburgh and Cardiff and the very different parts of Scotland and Wales. I want to set out what I mean. We must end the misrepresentation of the roles of public and private sector.
They are interrelated and of crucial support to each other. Some essential services such as education and health are provided by both. Some publicly financed programmes, such as Research grants, lead directly to job creation .Many quangos such as the Arts Council, or the Lottery, are critical to the success of our cultural activities and prowess on the sports field.
We need to recognise the Civil Service for the hard working, dedicated incorruptible machinery of government that it is. The widespread appointment of political advisers has contributed to public cynicism. Special advisers should bring expertise to public life not party politics. My relationship with this City was, without doubt, the most rewarding political experience of my life.
It taught me that we are overcentralised and that the baronies of Whitehall are specialist in their responsibilities with inadequate coordination. My time here opened my eyes to the local consequences. On the backbenches after 1986 I gained a fuller understanding of other countries’ more effective models.
In 1968 the Redcliffe-Maud report on the structure of local government in England looked at the 1300 local authorities that had been created when the only means of travel was by foot or horse. His report recommended their replacement by sixty-two Unitary Authorities.
It was the right judgement except in the eyes of all those with a stake in the status quo. Peter Walker - I was his deputy - steered an uneasy compromise through the Conservative government to reduce it to some 300 authorities.
The Greater London Authority and City Councils presided over London and Metropolitan boroughs with a two tier structure, based on counties and districts, elsewhere. This was the ground over which, as SoS for the Department of Environment, I led the Conservatives in the municipal elections of 1978. Labour was in trouble in the Winter of Discontent.
Operation Cleansweep was intended to drive them from power. Only Durham resisted our advance. I am not proud of my decisions about the local government restructuring when I was first responsible after 1979.
They are defensible only against the background of the divisive climate of the time. I got rid of the Greater London authority and the Metro counties that I had, only ten years earlier,
helped to create.
I am however proud of the serendipitous collection of decisions related to Liverpool.
I agreed to continue the special partnership that my predecessor, Peter Shore, formed with the City.
I selected the banks of the Mersey for the site for an Urban Development Corporation.
I awarded Liverpool the first Garden Festival, to reclaim toxic land and turn it into attractive development opportunities.
Peter Walker had created a derelict land grant mechanism a decade earlier to eradicate the coal tips and ore extraction blemishes scattered over the countryside. The task largely completed, I used the grant to reclaim toxic urban sites for construction. Significantly I made the grant conditional on private sector partners developing the site.
Every pound of public money attracted private money.
The concept of gearing entered the political vocabulary. Human relationships evolved In place of the dialogue of the deaf from opposing mountain tops. Business people and officials became partners, enjoyed a drink together, developed friendships.
I listed the Albert Dock, an iconic part of Liverpool heritage that was thus saved from demolition. In 1981 several of our inner cities witnessed serious riots. Amongst the worst were here in Toxteth.
The maintenance of law and order is a fundamental of any Conservative conviction. I backed the police as they restored it. I felt, however, a personal responsibility. The riots happened on my watch. I thought I had begun a serious attempt to bring a new optimism to Liverpool.
I sought the Prime Minister’s agreement, instantly given, to leave the departmental routine to my very able colleagues Tom King and John Stanley whilst I was here. I held extensive meetings, talked to anyone with something to say, walked the streets, listened, and considered. My relationship with the city lasted until the end of 1982. It can be divided into three distinct phases.
For three days I listened. People were courteous but sceptical. You only came because of the riot. That was self-evidently true and I chose it as the title for my subsequent report to the Cabinet. There was one other clear impression.
Everyone had their idea of who was responsible for the riots. It was always someone else. Liverpool The ability to fund and make decisions lay in London and even there, there was no coordination of responsibility. There was no powerful local leadership.
The mood changed around day four. People began to ask "What are you going to do?” There was only one credible answer to that question however much it made a mockery of the concept of non-intervention associated with Mrs Thatcher’s government.
I spent the next couple of weeks preparing a list of ideas that, with the right determination, resource, and above all, local support could demonstrate a more optimistic destiny.
The third phase lasted eighteen months. The list was one thing but who could turn it into action. I am a practical man. Show me a problem. Show me the person in charge. No one was in charge. The answer was to turn a centralist, London based approach on its head.
I created a task force drawn locally from the public and private sector. Every Thursday the team would report progress. Every Friday I troubleshot the obstacles. We learned how to regenerate places.
We learnt that there are no short-term fixes. Creating and developing ideas, the processes of planning and consultation, land acquisition and contract negotiation have to happen before boots hit the ground. The joker in the pack, and the Treasury’s strongest card in opposing regeneration, is that it is often impossible to predict and cost its consequences.
If I had predicted Canary Wharf, Excel, City Airport in London or a major arena and conference centre, and contemporary shopping centre in Liverpool I would have been locked up.
The Development Corporation on the banks of the Mersey and its equivalent in London were my most important initiative in 1979. To understand why they succeeded it is important to look at their structure. They had a chairman, a chief executive and board-level representative of local stakeholders. They had planning powers, money to restore sites, improve infrastructure and acquire land - all essential characteristics.
They were thus able to reassure investors considering locating a new office, laboratory or factory that it was not going to be surrounded by sheds and that their staff would be safe and enjoy good communications with their workplace. Such Corporations transformed large parts of inner city Britain over the next fifty years.
Regeneration is usually led by the public sector. It has the resources to make derelict land competitive with green fields. Partnerships with Quangos, universities, government cultural and sporting programmes have endless potential to work with the private sector to create wealth.
Levelling up, however, will remain more slogan than policy until the government gives form. resource and structure to its devolution agenda. Examples from my early Liverpool experiences demonstrate the philosophy.
The preservation of the Albert Dock provided a home for the Tate of the North. The use of Derelict Land Grant persuaded Plessey and British Rail to create Wavertree Industrial Park. The Housing Corporation unlocked the development of the Anglican Cathedral Precinct. The Mersey Basin campaign was a major attack on urban pollution.
The recent decision by the Metro Mayor, Steve Rotheram to complete the job
can make Liverpool a world leader in an increasing global priority to raise the quality of urban water with huge environmental, leisure, tourist, sporting and the job creation that will flow.
In the early 1980’s Cantril Farm was the despair of Knowsley Council. The Abbey National Building Society and Barclays Bank created the now thriving Stockbridge Village Trust. The Tate and Lyle site, abandoned by the company, was transferred to English Estates. The Eldonians campaigned to renovate their area. In 1987 the project, incorporating owner occupied housing, won the Times/RIBA award as the most outstanding example of community enterprise in the UK.
A Merseyside Special Allocation fund to enable this was spread over three years and deducted from the Housing Corporation budget. Pilkingtons in St.Helens were faced with redundancies. Bill Humphries, set
up an advisory service to help those losing their jobs.
Step by step, this initiative led to the present Local Enterprise Partnerships of today. The urban fringe is often characterised by rubbish dumped by uncaring citizens. Groundwork UK was conceived in St Helens using volunteers to clean things up.. Today it is a federation of charities mobilising community action on poverty and the environment across the United Kingdom.
In 1990 I returned to the Department of the Environment for the third time. Ten years before, I had been preoccupied with the need to reclaim derelict land. The conversion of Cantril Farm into Stockbridge Village Trust gave me the confidence to tackle the human tragedy of urban slums.
City Challenge invited 30 local authorities to compete for one of only 10 packages of £35 million spread over 5 years to help them transform a slum estate. The idea of competition was highly controversial but right. The losers learnt from the winners in the second round. There were conditions.
The local Authority had to attract private or other public funds to add to the original offer. The project had to have a chief executive and a project team. Most importantly, the stakeholders, such as headteachers, social workers, the police and the tenants, had to be consulted.
One of the winning sites was here in Liverpool. I am grateful to Max Steinberg for the opportunity to study the historic documents he kept from his involvement at the time. The area covered 144 hectares within the eastern sector of the City Centre.
It links the centre with Everton, Granby/Toxteth and Cornwallis, with the campuses of the University, Polytechnic (now Liverpool John Moores University ), City Community
College and the Oxford Street, Myrtle Street and Catherine Street Hospitals.
Some 4000 people lived in the area, and there was a working population of 18,000. The project was timed for five years and in 1997 the European Institute of Urban Affairs was asked to report on the outcome. I quote its concluding paragraphs.
‘Liverpool City Challenge has exceeded its original output projects in 18 of the 19 areas of activity. There was underperformance in the number of dwellings transferred to owner occupation, due to limited progress in the Canning area.
However, we achieved:
23% more jobs were created than anticipated
282% extra business start-ups
14% more new or improved business and commercial floorspace
35% more reclaimed land
20% more apprenticeships
29% more Housing Association dwellings
105% more childcare places
The report concluded and I quote: "The achievements, whilst evidence of the success of the initiative, may also reflect the fact that targets were cautiously set initially, to make them achievable. Nevertheless, taken as a set of indicators for the performance of Liverpool City Challenge, they certainly demonstrate significant success in delivering the plan."
In Manchester, another City challenge was awarded. Richard Leese, Leader of the City Council, described Hulme City Challenge as the most important thing that has happened to Manchester over the past forty years. Virtually everything done since was with the skills, knowledge and ideas acquired through the City Challenge process.
Today it is called Levelling Up. In a sense even that slogan misleads. We are never going to create Mayfair in Middlesbrough. What we can do is to turn the vicious circle of decline, where the young leave, companies close, schools fail, and land lies deserted, into virtuous circles of hope where people stay, companies invest, and the environment attracts.
We know how to do it. The evidence is irrefutable. What is missing is a government determined to do it. After the 2010 election David Cameron invited me, together with Sir Terry Leahy, one of this City’s most distinguished citizens. to revisit my 1981 report ‘It took a riot’.
The contrast was stark. Liverpool was full of people with ideas and energy. Our task was to recommend the best and propose a framework within which to turn them into action. Our report - Rebalancing Britain: Policy or Slogan, published in October 2011 set out our recommendations.
A year later I published another report for the Prime Minister ‘No Stone Unturned in pursuit of Growth’. Uniting both these reports was the theme to give form and substance to devolution by creating powerful Mayors to lead the recovery of our cities.
George Osborne, as Chancellor, and Greg Clark, as the Minister responsible, began the first serious move in that direction after the Blair Government created a mayoralty in London in 2000. This is not a cry for increased Public Expenditure, although I believe markets would take a more benign view of borrowing if it was for investment and not consumption.
This is a cry to use existing public capital programmes to attract private expenditure. It is a policy to save public expenditure by replacing over 300 local authorities closer to the 62 designed fifty years ago. Scotland and Wales abolished District Authorities in the 1990s.
In England unitary counties Wiltshire, Dorset. Shropshire and Buckinghamshire for example, manage perfectly well without the waste, and duplication created by two tiers. We need to extend the local leadership provided by directly elected mayors.
The government should recreate the central pot of capital expenditure introduced by George Osborne and distribute long term funds, after consultation, to local partnerships depending on the quality of their plans reflecting the opportunities and problems in their very different locations.
We need to engage the remarkable reservoir of goodwill and cooperation that the Covid crisis revealed to be not far below the surface of our society.
It was a single honour for me to receive the Freedom of this City in 2012.
In looking forward then I concluded.
Liverpool is reasserting its place as a city recognised across a shrinking world as a place of culture, a font of enterprise, proud of itself, ambitious for its future.
Liverpudlians have done this.
Liverpudlians will build on this.
You must be clear.
Because you did. You can.
I would not change a word of it.

​

Love and deepest respect for The Queen's exceptional public service, sadness and prayers for His Majesty The King and all the Royal Family.

8/9/2022

 
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Thatcher's Paper to 1984 Fontainebleau EC/EU Summit shows today's Conservative Party is not her heir

16/11/2020

 
36 years ago, Margaret Thatcher as Prime Minister shared with her European Community opposite numbers the following British paper suggesting wide-ranging respects in how the EC/EU should be taken forward. Whatever else the current British government may be, it is not the heir to previous Conservative governments.
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Whose future after the coronavirus crisis?

24/4/2020

 
2020 has so far seen massive constraint on civil liberties, collapsed global markets, and more than a hint of beggar-thy-neighbour populist-nationalist rhetoric and policy.

This does not mean the world must inevitably re-run the ordeal of the populist-nationalist 1930s.

However, there will be no shortage of populists blaming innocent scapegoats for undoubted misfortune. There will be no shortage of people in difficult circumstances seeking others to blame. 

To ensure that the post corona crisis future does not belong to the populist-nationalists will require changes of direction to public policy and, in particular, a re-birth of the moderate centre-right.

Some entrepreneurial icons of our age seem to understand the scale of what is now at stake.

Bill Gates has been pitch perfect, offering to spend billions of dollars of his own money to help to vaccinate every person on the planet.

As he may have discerned, there would be a heavy price for future generations to pay if the West rested on its laurels having mitigated the coronavirus crisis at home while being insouciant as it ravaged the developing world.

To prevent a wider collapse in global trade which populist-nationalists (even if not those of the British variety) can be relied upon to demand, prudence and a responsible recognition of public opinion will require modest shifts of production, for example in pharmaceuticals, to offer more regional security, even at the cost of marginally reducing long term rates of economic growth.

With the bigger state here for some time to come, the art will be to secure maximum benefit for the many, minimum loss of freedom for all.

Public policy will need to be seen to attach a higher weight to justice including, for example,  inter-generational justice and justice between different parts of the world.

And domestic western politics will need normative change.

The EU’s centre-right is uniquely well placed to project politics recalibrated for a new era, more respectful of the human soul, less obsessed on national-populist bread and circuses for people seen only - and despised - by mediocre rulers as economic instruments.

Quantitative easing, qualitative decadence

After the global financial crash, it was a socialist political leader - the UK’s Gordon Brown - who  led the way to saving the world.

At a more micro level, he rescued the world’s middle classes - and of course the very wealthy - with his pro-active leadership culminating in the programme announced at the 2009 G20 London summit.

His was superlative statesmanship: it prevented economic depression and political collapse when these outcomes were far from certain.

A return to inter-war, deflationary, beggar-thy-neighbour error was explicitly averted through significant international cooperation and coordination.

Quantitative easing (“QE”) prevented the instant poverty that would otherwise have immediately confronted hundreds of millions and perhaps billions of people.

But there is a distinction, too casually overlooked, between life-saving injection and drug addiction.

QE became a habit.

Official addiction to that habit generated yet another round of asset inflation about which too many policy makers were too complacent.

One side effect was to exacerbate the perception that the real and immediate cost of economic constraint had fallen on those least able to afford it.

Capital seemed to prevail over people.

As the rich - too often the manifestly undeserving rich like ostentatious beneficiaries of oppressive cronyism in countries such as Russia - became even richer, vastly more people suffered acute economic deprivation. This was fertile soil for the qualitative decadence of populist-nationalism.

Before the coronavirus crisis, elected populist-nationalists - in the USA, UK and elsewhere - were able to deliver for their elite supporters.

The USA, for example, saw spectacular market gains under the Trump administration.

However, notwithstanding overblown populist-nationalist rhetoric - reliably appealing to the worst rather than to the best of human nature - real prospects in broad terms further deteriorated or were stagnant for the genuinely aggrieved.

The potential for populist-nationalism to generate a vicious cycle of ever more inapposite rhetoric and ever greater under-performance remains a grave danger on all continents.

But this tide can be turned.


The coronavirus crisis and the UK’s populist-nationalist coup 

Before the coronavirus crisis, the UK had experienced a coup d’état, no less acute or real for being substantially concealed from and misrepresented to the public or, indeed, for not even being noticed by the public.

The Conservative Party - historically the world’s most formidable political survivor but riven with internal philosophical contradiction - had been decisively captured by populist-nationalists.

It had avoided this fate even in the 1930s when some of its adherents were relatively sympathetic to Mussolini and Hitler, whom they saw as effective anti-Communist winners.

Today, behind an essentially fake facade of continuity of branding and institutional continuity, populist-nationalists have transformed the Conservative Party.

What had once been a disagreeable if vocal minor faction within the party has now secured a hostile takeover of the party. This takeover was consolidated by a ruthless purge in late 2019.

Although it did not suit many people to see this at the time (after all, Cameron then looked to many like a winner), it was a decisive symbolic and substantive moment when Cameron removed the Conservative Party from the mainstream, moderate centre-right political family of the EPP European People’s Party in 2009.

A core Tory instinct through the centuries has been magnetic attraction to power. By this measure, to quit the EU’s leading political force and to create in its place a marginal political freak show was by definition a profoundly un-Tory act.

Cameron’s apologists claimed he was appeasing those who now control the party.

Even if that were true and Cameron was not in fact simply doing what he wanted to do - which is at least as credible - as predictably as night follows day, Appeasement ended badly for Cameron and for Britain as it had for Baldwin and Chamberlain.

Also, previous Tory leaders would have turned in their grave as Cameron instead forged formal party alliances with Putin, Erdogan, AfD and others. Dictates of foreign policy were one thing for Tory realpolitik but formal party political alliance with freedom’s opponents, and in some cases even with Hitler’s political heirs, was extreme qualitative decadence.

However perverse, the geopolitical component of the populist-nationalists’ agenda - detachment from Europe, economic and cultural re-alignment towards the Five Eyes intelligence alliance of the anglosphere and the vanity of new bilateral relationships with rising powers - was relatively transparent.

Even so, when it suited them, the populist-nationalists untruthfully claimed they wanted the UK to stay in the EU’s single market and/or customs union when of course they had no such intention.

The populist-nationalists’ purported economic agenda was an enhanced social market - for example, strengthening the National Health Service - but this too was spectacular dishonesty.

As was very well understood in Paris and Berlin - and also, from a different perspective, within the current administration in Washington DC - their strategic objective was radically de-regulated neoliberalism.

Economic, environmental and social protection - the “failing” EU social market model - would all be reduced.

This model could also work only if there was to be a significant further transfer of resource from wages (and also consumption) to capital: a fundamental truth almost wholly absent from public debate.

What was essentially a billionaires’ charter, nonetheless also had potentially populist components.

For example, safe food from the EU could theoretically be replaced (assuming the USA could if necessary be relied upon to ensure sterling did not collapse) by cheap food, albeit unsustainably produced, from other jurisdictions.

While the populist-nationalists promised to “bring back control” in the event of Brexit, the wider public at best understood - or, less charitably, chose to understand - only very selectively indeed what this meant.

The populist-nationalists were - and are - keen to liberate the British executive from the constraints - some real,  some wilfully misunderstood - of the European Convention on Human Rights.

ECHR of course underpins much of what British people have in recent decades seen as the British way of life, for example rights of women and people from minorities.

ECHR is an effective constraint on governments seeking to abuse and to bypass legislatures and judiciaries.

The authoritarian former Conservative leader Theresa May, while relatively nuanced about leaving the EU, unambiguously wanted to exit from the constraints of direct applicability and enforceability of ECHR.

Antagonism to ECHR is a reasonably clear indicator of the authoritarian and hierarchical post-Brexit populist-nationalist vision.

More happily, and in the circumstances following the 2017 General Election, the one positive feature in British politics had been the re-assertion of effective parliamentary control over the executive (“the Crown”) and  also of Parliament over political parties.

Parliament was becoming stronger than at any time since at least the First World War after which the emergence of socialism shifted the balance of power in favour of the main political parties. 

That positive trend of Parliament’s renaissance was instantly killed and reversed by the December 2019 General Election, which was immediately followed by extreme and sustained displays of unprecedented hubris from the Prime Minister’s own office.

Even before the coronavirus crisis, far from associating Brexit with democratic re-birth, more power for the British Parliament and other elected bodies throughout the UK, and also de-centralisation of the British state, the Conservative Government had covertly secured - without  anything like effective media or parliamentary scrutiny - massive transfers of power to the executive arm of central government.  

With the support of only 28.5% of the UK’s electorate (and in Scotland, for example, only 17%) a populist-nationalist government has surreptitiously transferred so much power to the executive arm of central government that those who framed the 1688 settlement underpinning the British constitution might now fear the worst.

Conservatives like Theresa May might claim that by shifting the Conservative Party’s ground, their party had neutralised even more nationalist-populist protagonists like Nigel Farage. There is truth in that assertion, as is evidenced by the collapse in the December 2019 election of non-Conservative populist-nationalist votes.

Better too, such Conservatives might also self-servingly say, UKIP’s/Brexit Party’s measures implemented by the Conservative Party than these measures implemented by UKIP/Brexit Party.

But at what tipping point does the internal cancer of populist-nationalism within a mainstream political party stop being capable of treatment? 

It took a succession of the Labour Party’s leaders - Kinnock, Smith, Blair - sufficiently to cleanse that party of a more transparent but perhaps lesser infection.

The reality is that the coup within the Conservative Party was meticulously planned over a long period of time and has infected nearly all the party’s vital organs. 

The Conservative Party’s centre of political energy is, especially after Johnson’s purge of late 2019, firmly within the populist-nationalist camp.

The result of the December 2019 election, secured with the UK’s distorted electoral system, at least for the short term made the Conservative Party’s leader the dictator of an over-centralised state controlled by one party and with excessively compliant media.

But the coronavirus crisis may infect this new order.

That Johnson deliberately staffed his Cabinet with mediocrities - presumably to minimise threat to his own position - was a sort of political memento mori immediately after his election triumph. In comparison, the calibre of the Blair Cabinet of 1997 was stellar.

Unlike Labour, the Conservative Party has always been ruthless about removing under-performing leaders and Mr Johnson inevitably now faces a period of personal uncertainty after which he may or may not prevail.

He will be astute enough to know that the gratitude Conservative MPs felt to him on being elected in December 2019 is a diminishing and fragile asset.

There will also be increasing mismatch between the daily experience of British citizens and populist-nationalist rhetoric of the governing party.

Reflecting dogmatic obsession with an extreme version of Brexit, his regime relentlessly pumps out populist-nationalist rhetoric however absurdly inapposite the context.

But as a wiser Conservative Prime Minister - Harold Macmillan who invested huge political energy in preparing the UK for membership of the EC/EU - observed, governments were always vulnerable to Events, dear boy, events.

Particularly if Germany continues to be seen to have managed the coronavirus so much better than has the UK, the British public is likely to become increasingly sceptical about both the populist-nationalist direction of travel in general and also the Government’s repeated emphasis that the post-Brexit transition deadline cannot be extended.

Even the fanatical Brexiteer Isabel Oakeshott now expressly recognises that, faced with the coronavirus crisis, the UK’s Brexit transition deadline must be extended. Unlike the Government, she has had political insight to sense  acute political danger.

Despite the nominal size of Mr Johnson’s majority in Parliament, the very fact of its weighting towards populist-nationalists and away from more traditional Tories could through hard times make it potentially a less stable majority even than, for example, John Major had in the 1990s.

It will prove increasingly difficult to hold together the geographical alliance of constituencies currently held by the Conservative Party.

And does Mr Johnson want to be remembered as the Prime Minister during whose premiership the UK split into different countries? If he does indeed want to remain as Prime Minister and to keep Scotland and Northern Ireland within the UK during his term of office, that will require a mastery of detail, energy and statesmanship which has so far eluded him.

To misquote Oscar Wilde’s Lady Bracknell, for one Bullingdon Club Prime Minister to lose membership of the EU may be regarded as a misfortune, for another Bullingdon Club Prime Minister to lose Scotland and Northern Ireland looks like carelessness.

And Labour’s new leader looks much more like the type of Labour Prime Minister the British from time to time can be persuaded to elect.

Starmer's forensic skills as a lawyer will be a nightmare - as and when Parliament is eventually allowed to sit - for a Prime Minister characterised by a casual, under-prepared, unreflecting style. 

The coronavirus crisis has also now undermined the feasibility of the covert neoliberalism behind the British populist-nationalist agenda.

It has created a new direction of travel for economic management: having to be paid for over the longer term but appearing more immediately to validate a wider range of expectations about the public sector.

Taxes - already very high by historic standards in the UK - will rise further, not fall.

Huge expansion of public spending and borrowing will lead to enhanced and renewed involvement of government - whether as shareholder, regulator and otherwise - in private enterprise.

The balance between private enterprise and nationalisation will tilt a bit to favour the latter, with public opinion ever less tolerant of overpaid directors of under-performing privately owned utilities.

The UK’s populist-nationalist government will fail to conceal the incompetence which will have led to higher than necessary death and disruption from the coronavirus crisis.
​

The generations who are or should be in work - and who will see both even less of what they earn in their pay packet and also even higher indirect tax - will require a credible New Deal.

Given their incumbency in the UK, populist-nationalists would not seem to be the most probable authors and deliverers of such a deal. 

The future

All three main British political parties started by being heavily influenced by various strands of Christian thought.

All three to a greater or lesser extent became captive to marxist-materialist calculation,  conceiving of politics in amoral economic terms whether on behalf of workers or of capital.

On 9 April 2020, the British Government responded to a petition asking it to extend the period of transition on leaving the EU so it could focus on the coronavirus crisis. Its language is much more revealing than they would have wished.

In its final sentence, the Government claims it will continue to be guided by scientific advice about what is right for our workforce. 

Putting to one side the incontestable fact that, months ago, the Government failed to be guided by the WHO’s scientific advice, the term our workforce unambiguously evidences the marxist-materialist contagion of this populist-nationalist administration.

The phrase is both authoritarian and also defines people overwhelmingly as economic agents: it reveals the governing party’s qualitative decadence.

It implies thinking much closer to that of Mussolini, couched in populist-nationalist terms, or of Stalin, couched in both populist-nationalist and class terms, than to that of those who developed democracy or of earlier Prime Ministers.

More positively, there is now some reason to hope and believe this nightmare marriage of marxist-materialism with populist-nationalism may now have run most of its course both in the UK and elsewhere.

Renewal of the centre-right is crucial.

The EPP European People’s Party is fortunate to have a new President, Donald Tusk, who acutely understands this, no doubt in part because of his exposure to both marxist-materialism and then to populist-nationalists within Poland.

He knows that the EU must now deliver, not simply talk.

Happily too, he is not alone.

A number of US centre-right think tanks are evolving policies in ways that may prove complementary.

The centre-right can and must re-assert for our times the essentials of liberal democracy: the rule of law, freedom of religion and expression and so on.

Beyond that, it must offer a coherent, credible and positive alternative to both populist-nationalism and marxist-materialism.

Again, the philosophical basis underpinning the EPP’s political family is uniquely well-placed to do this.

Ordoliberalism not neoliberalism can again sustainably deliver strong economic performance.

The social market - offering sustainable economic, environmental and social justice - can and must be re-defined for our times as a civilised, effective and harmonious organisation of society.

And re-assertion of the unique spiritual value of each person - the EPP family’s USP - is the ultimate antidote to marxist-materialism, creating a new sense of well-being and worth, giving life a  purpose way beyond being what mediocre nationalist-populists call our workforce and offering every person a balanced relationship with society.

Curing the contamination of the coronavirus crisis must be the opportunity also to cure the body politic of both marxist-materialism and populist-nationalism.


Dirk Hazell
Leader, UK EPP

Michael Heseltine Speech People's Vote March 23/03/2019

25/3/2019

 

Letter to Rt Hon Matt Hancock MP supporting #PeoplesVote

15/11/2018

 
Picture

Will of the People? 7th least strong mandate since 1950 and only 14th highest turnout since 1945

11/11/2018

 
Britain's hard right have claimed the 2016 EU referendum expressed the will of the people.

For various reasons, we emphatically disagree even with the proposition that it was the UK's largest ever democratic exercise.

​We put to one side defective conduct of the referendum - which suppressed much of the Remain side - but here focus on two factors: voter turnout and lead of the winning side expressed as a proportion of the electorate.

Voter Turnout

Turnout in the 2016 referendum was high at 72%, higher than the 65% turnout in the 1975 referendum.

However, since 1945 there have been 13 General Elections with higher turnout:-

1945 (73%)
1950 (84%)
1952 (83%)
1955 (77%)
1959 (79%)
1964 (77%)
1966 (76%)
1974 (79%)
1974 (73%)
1979 (76%)
1983 (73%)
1987 (75%)
1992 (78%)

Winner  as share of the electorate

Nor was the margin of victory in the 2016 referendum large, defined either as a majority over the losing side or as the share of the electorate on the winning side. 

​The chart below shows elections and the 1975 referendum since 1950 where the share of the electorate supporting the winning side was greater than in 2016:-
Picture
The chart shows six elections/referendum since 1950 where more of the electorate voted for the winning side than in 2016.

​The two front-runners are the 1975 referendum and Labour's result in 1951 (when a Conservative Government took office on fewer votes than Labour won: a bit like Trump and Clinton in 2016).

The chart below shows that the difference in the share of the electorate between winning and losing sides was more than 8 times greater in the 1975 referendum than in that of 2016:-

Picture
20% more of the electorate voted Remain in 2016 than voted Conservative in 2017.

MEMORIAL LECTURE FOR STEPHEN HASELER: Will Brexit Destroy the United Kingdom? Delivered by Brendan Donnelly, Director, The Federal Trust for Education & Research 04/10/2018

8/10/2018

 
Unsurprisingly, I have very mixed feelings about giving this lecture today. I am flattered and honoured to have been invited to speak as a memorial lecturer for Stephen. His contribution to the work and discussion of the Global Policy Institute and of the Federal Trust was immense and will never be forgotten.

Many of the topics at the centre of current political discussion, the role of the super-rich in modern capitalism, the concealed fragility of long-standing British institutions, English exceptionalism, were broached in Stephen’s writings long before they became fashionable.

His academic success testified to his rigorous scholarship and his regular appearances in the mass media always demonstrated his capacity to put forward difficult issues in an accessible and challenging fashion. I am pleased to be able to mark and recall this contribution, not only to the Institute and the Trust but to public debate more widely.


I agreed with Stephen on almost all major issues, including federalism, Europe, the counter-productive nature of economic austerity and the inadequacy of an exclusively Anglo-centric world view. There were only two points on which Stephen and I occasionally disagreed, the monarchy and the England cricket team. I recall harsh words being exchanged when Kevin Pietersen was dropped. In regard to the less important of our disagreements, the monarchy,, I should have enjoyed discussing with him the public sensation recently caused when it turned out that an able-bodied young American woman was able to close a car door unaided. Come back Mrs. Simpson, all is forgiven. When royal weddings took place, Stephen physically fled the country. I on the other hand was content to stay at home in a darkened room watching the Sopranos on Netflix until it was safe once more to turn on the television. Stephen’s Republicanism was an essential component of his
world view. He was a fearless crusader, eager to ensure that others came to share the courage of his convictions. I will always miss him and I know there are many in this room who feel the same.

For all these reasons, I would much prefer to be giving today any other kind of lecture than a memorial lecture, and I would want to Stephen Haseler sitting in the front row, ready to disagree with something I had said, or even more disconcertingly, to agree with something I hadn’t said. I hope my lecture this evening will reflect, however inadequately, some of the important themes to which Stephen devoted this intellectual and political energy in recent years. Ronald Reagan once said that the secret of a good speech was to skip the bits people weren’t interested in. I shall try to follow that good advice.

Stephen was less surprised than many by the outcome of the EU referendum in June 2016. He rightly saw it as the consequence of the cracks and tensions within British political society which he had been discussing for many years. He observed that the initial stages of the Brexit negotiations were exacerbating these tensions, and he was deeply conscious of the further ratcheting effect produced by the indecisive outcome of last year’s General Election.

My aim this evening is to take Stephen’s basic analysis, with which I entirely agree, as a starting-point and project it eighteen months further on, to where we are today. I shall review three basic issues, first the genesis of the 2016 referendum and its damaging outcome in the systemic failings of the UK state; second, the interaction between those failings and the painful progress until now of the Brexit negotiations; and third the likely impact on the stability of the British state of Brexit, if it occurs, an outcome that I regard as by no means assured. Three is always a good number of topics for lecturers. The former Governor of the Bank of England Eddy George used to say that there are only three kinds of Central Bankers, those who can count and those who cannot.
​

The way in which the decision to hold a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU was taken faithfully mirrored a number of Stephen’s abiding concerns about the functioning of the United Kingdom.

It was a decision with the most far-reaching potential effects of every kind for the country taken with little care for its wider consequences, and almost exclusively in the Conservative party interest to meet a specifically English problem.

It was a decision taken by a social elite arrogantly confident that by holding this referendum it would reinforce its own political position.

An extra twist was given to the self-regarding nature of the enterprise by the personal rivalry between two Old Etonians, Boris Johnson and David Cameron.


Stephen would have relished the grim irony of recent reports that Boris Johnson now regrets his possibly decisive contribution to the “Leave” campaign. It is not 
clear whether in this regret it is the welfare of the country or that of Boris Johnson looms larger.

In a supposed representative democracy, few Parliamentarians voting in the House of Commons in 2015 for the referendum to take place honestly believed that the referendum would be in the national interest.

The overwhelming majority viewed and the prospect of Brexit with varying degrees of alarm and horror. Yet the party manoeuvrings of Westminster, overwhelmingly tribal in character, ensured that the holding of a referendum, its execution and its outcome have been accepted by a large majority of parliamentarians.

The constitutional status of and the procedures for the holding of the referendum were improvised and sloppy, and led later to rancid controversy in the courts.

No account was taken in the decision to hold the referendum of the interests of other parts of the United Kingdom apart from England.

I shall discuss further below the individual elements of this charge-sheet, but cumulatively it surely represents the polar opposite of a well-functioning political society, particularly one styling itself a parliamentary democracy.


Purely party-related reasons drove David Cameron in 2013 to promise a referendum on British membership of the European Union if his party won the 2015 election.

To Mr. Cameron’s surprise, an only marginal improvement in the Conservative vote in 2015 compared with 2010, combined with the collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote and a freakish result for the SNP in Scotland, left him able to form a solely Conservative government, elected by 36.9% of the votes cast. It is often claimed that the First Past the Post system has the admirable merit of usually electing strong governments. 2015’s government was the very opposite of a strong government. It was one just strong enough to form a Conservative administration but weak enough to be bullied by its radical Eurosceptic wing into holding a reckless referendum, and to ensure that every possible concession was made to these Eurosceptics to give them the best possible chance of winning.

The winner takes all nature of our electoral system operated paradoxically to ensure that Mr. Cameron not merely could hold an EU referendum in 2016. He was obliged to do so in order to keep in place the fragile coalition which is today’s Conservative Party.


So confident was David Cameron of winning the 2016 referendum that he allowed the franchise to be tilted significantly towards the Leave side by excluding from the vote 17- and 18-year olds, EU citizens of long residence in the UK and British citizens of long residence elsewhere in the EU, all of which voters could well have voted in their majority to remain in the EU. Mr. Cameron also allowed the Eurosceptic wing of his party to pre-empt official campaigning by the Conservative Party, proclaiming the party neutral in a referendum called by its leader.

Having spent ten years at the 
head of an increasingly Eurosceptic party, Mr. Cameron had ten weeks to turn himself into the leader of a pro-EU coalition. It is hardly surprising that he fell short.

He found himself in an ironically similar situation to that of Jeremy Corbyn, whose record is that of a left-wing Eurosceptic, but who bestirred himself to show a strictly limited level of enthusiasm for the European cause during the referendum campaign. A majority of Conservative voters rejected Mr. Cameron’s campaigning for “remain,” while a large majority of Labour voters voted against Brexit, with scant encouragement from the leader of the Party. These Cameronian and Corbynite anomalies symbolised deeper disequilibria in their two major parties, to which I will return later in the lecture.


It might be argued that the mistakes of David Cameron between 2013 and 2016 were merely calamitous personal mistakes, to which all political systems are more or less vulnerable. The political system in which they took place was however one which encouraged these mistakes initially, made it easier for them to be persisted with and is now contributing to their potentially disastrous outcome.

At the heart of the British political system lies its tribalist party system, generated and sustained by the First Past the Post electoral system. It was this political culture which encouraged David Cameron to set the long-term welfare of the country a long way behind his desire to maintain a fragile intra-party unity in 2013, in the hope of allowing his particular political tribe to continue in power in 2015. It was this tribalism which persuaded many doubtful Conservative MPs to vote in favour of the holding of a referendum after the General Election in 2015. Even today it is this tribalism which makes it so difficult for many MPs to approach the question of Brexit from the perspective of the national interest rather than party advantage.


In parallel to these intra-party considerations, when David Cameron was re-elected as Prime Minister in 2015 in the freakish circumstances described, the pernicious doctrine of untrammelled Parliamentary sovereignty meant that he was able to mobilise his Parliamentary majority for the holding of a referendum without being bound by any constitutional or institutional constraints upon the way this referendum was to be held.

If, contrary to the usual description of the UK as a representative parliamentary democracy, a referendum was to be held on such a vital and complicated subject as British membership of the EU, it might have been expected that the legal status of the referendum would be demanding and watertight. No such precautions were taken or indeed in the absence of a written constitution needed to be taken.

In response to the very reasonable suggestion that such a break with Parliamentary practice might perhaps be based upon a reinforced majority of say 60% of those voting, the Europe Minister of the day David Lidington 
assured the House of Commons that no such provision was necessary, since the referendum was purely consultative.

Once result of the referendum was known, David Lidington himself has been one of those arguing vociferously that the House of Commons had no choice but to implement the narrow outcome of the 2016 referendum.

The later controversy in the High and Supreme Court about the precise legal consequences of the referendum mark a sorry epilogue to this ludicrous chain of events. It must place a question mark over the supposed robustness of the British unwritten constitution that such a process could act itself out in this grotesque fashion, with only minimal public or even elite protest. I will not need to remind many in this audience that it was a private citizen Gina Miller who initiated the legal case that ended up in the Supreme Court, not an MP. The Parliamentary slaves love their chains. Servi catenas amant as the former Mayor of London might express it. I can hear Stephen snorting with disapproval at the Latin, whether it comes from me or from Boris Johnson.


Events during the referendum reminded us, if we needed to be reminded, of the merits of genuine parliamentary democracy and the dangers of plebiscites.

An overall narrow majority to leave the Union was achieved on the basis of widespread lies and fantasies and a distribution of the vote that could only exacerbate existing divisions within the UK.


As is well known both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, Scotland by a large margin.

Both during and after the referendum the Electoral Commission showed itself a broken reed, unable to check deliberate misrepresentations and only very tardily moving after the referendum was over to investigate founded complaints of irregularities and law-breaking, particularly by the Leave campaign.


Even if the Remain campaign had been successful in 2016, the referendum and the events leading up to it would have been a sorry, sordid episode in our national history. Stephen, like many others, regarded the casual anarchy of the referendum process with the greatest possible disdain. To elevate the narrow outcome of this ramshackle and shoddy affair to an unalterable expression of the popular will was for him the proof positive that the absence of a written constitution was an irresistible invitation to manipulation and bad faith.

Untrammelled Parliamentary sovereignty was abused in 2016 by those having no real respect for it to allow a Conservative government to transpose to the national stage its internal disputes, offering the electorate an insufficiently specified binary choice on a matter of great complexity.

The weaknesses and ambiguities of the British political system permitted the bolting on to an anyway doubtfully functional Parliamentary system of a legally fuzzy referendum that had been carried out in the most dubious and controversial fashion possible.


Given the nature of the referendum process, it was always a vain hope that the negotiations leading up to Brexit could be conducted in a measured or rational fashion. As we have seen, the referendum was called into being in the hope of settling the civil war raging in the Conservative Party over Europe. Stephen had interesting views on the nature of this civil war, which he saw as pitting Thatcherite advocates of the minimal state against those who recognised a necessary and even benevolent role for state action.

In signing the Single European Act Mrs. Thatcher had persuaded herself that it was a manifesto of the minimal state and was furious to discover that she had been deceiving herself in this regard. She therefore blamed the European Union for her own misconceptions, a dishonourable tradition which continues in the Conservative Party to this day.

Far from being settled, the internal divisions of the Conservative Party were given an extra and more dangerous twist by the narrow outcome of the referendum. The radical Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative party has moved in to claim its spoils, showing no desire to function as generous or conciliatory victors. They were the winners and they wanted to take it all.

Over the past two years, the Conservative Parliamentary Party has been riven by the conflict between those who wanted the United Kingdom after Brexit to remain closely aligned with the European Union as a trading partner; and those who did not, or at least attached little or no importance to doing so.

It is important to stress that this division finds little echo in the broader Conservative Party. Most of those who select Conservative MPs and may in future deselect them are squarely behind the most visceral and combative form of Euroscepticism. The confidence with which the ERG goes about its business is a function of the wide measure of support it knows it enjoys within the Party outside Westminster.

As the leader of a minority government, the Prime Minister needs to pay at least some attention to the majority of her MPs who recognize the unwisdom of Brexit and are still trying to rescue what can be rescued from the Brexit shipwreck.

Her desire to find a negotiating strategy reconciling these two widely different approaches within her Parliamentary Party led over many months simply to stalemate and incoherence. Two major policy statements in Florence and Lancaster House came and went without coming any nearer to a model for the future relationship between the EU and UK that would be acceptable to the European partners. They were widely and rightly rejected by the rest of the EU as “cherry-picking.” Having broken off her engagement with the European fiancé Mrs. May has sent back the letters and Valentine cards but wants to keep the jewels for sentimental reasons.

The Chequers plan was a final and belated attempt to produce a proposal at least 
capable of serious discussion with our European partners. The cautious welcome it received was a testimony to the low level of expectation prevalent on the EU side.

It is grossly over-optimistic to claim that postponing the triggering of Article 50 would have led to a more rational course of the Brexit negotiations. Only the opening of negotiations and many months of unsuccessful negotiations could ever have brought forth even the limited degree of realism implicit in the Chequers plan. As we know, the Chequers plan pleased neither side of the Conservative debate and attracted a final, unexpectedly categorical rejection from the European Union at the Salzburg summit.

The “Chequers” plan, while presented by Mrs. May as a compromise, leant distinctly in the direction of those wishing a radical break with the European Union. It seems likely that the criticism now directed at it by Mr. Tusk and others will hasten the process whereby the Conservative Party unambiguously embraces a more distant future relationship with the EU after Brexit, perhaps taking the Canadian Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as a model for this relationship. At the beginning of the Brexit negotiations this would have been styled as a “hard Brexit,” because it implies that the UK will remain outside both the single market and the Customs Union. It is widely recognized as being the most economically damaging form of Brexit apart from an entirely chaotic and non-consensual Brexit. It seems however to be the likeliest form of Brexit for the present Conservative Party to be able to accept.


In many ways, this final acceptance of a more distant and less integrated future relationship will clarify and facilitate the Brexit negotiations. Philip Hammond’s claim earlier this week that such an FTA is not on offer from the European Union is bizarrely incorrect. It was the repeated argument of Michel Barnier and others that Mrs. May’s “red lines” of the rejection of free movement and the rejection of the authority of the European Court of Justice made any closer relationship than an FTA impossible.

Philip Hammond may have been drawing attention, albeit in a misleading fashion, to an enormous difficulty thrown up by the prospect of an EU/UK FTA, the problem of Northern Ireland and the Irish backstop. As the Brexit negotiations have proceeded, Churchill’s “dreary steeples” of Northern Ireland have come once again to play a decisive role in British politics.


There is an irony in the centrality of Ireland to the Brexit negotiations. The Easter Rising of 1916 is rightly regarded as the first crack in the edifice of the British empire.

A hundred years later many of those voting in the EU referendum succumbed to the seductive charms of imperial nostalgia.

It has fallen to Ireland to remind the rulers of the UK how different the world is today from what it was one 
hundred years ago. Mrs May supposedly remarked to Jean-Claude Juncker in November of last year that she could not believe that a country as relatively unimportant as Ireland should be allowed to block progress in the Brexit negotiations. She has had nearly a year to ponder the falseness of that perception.

In the strange, oscillating Eurosceptic narrative of British superiority and British victimhood the idea that the EU wants to punish the UK for leaving the EU is a recurrent theme. The member states of the EU are of course far too preoccupied defending what they see as their own interests in the Brexit negotiations to be bothered with punishing the UK.

I do sense however in some of our EU partners a readiness to do something that might sound similar, namely to teach the British a lesson. That lesson ought not to be a painful one. It is a lesson about the power of solidarity. There are many more small states in the EU than there are large states. These small states are reassured by what they rightly see as the willingness of the EU as a whole to support Ireland in defending its vital national interest in the preservation of the Good Friday Agreement.


From the beginning of the Brexit negotiations the Irish government was well aware that if the UK did not enter into an EEA-like arrangement with the EU after Brexit, then Brexit was likely to lead in to the erection of at least some customs and regulatory barriers between the United Kingdom and the European Union. This matters to the Irish government because Anglo-Irish trade is centrally important to the Irish economy. Ireland is already looking against the prospect of Brexit to diversify its trade away from the United Kingdom, but this is a process that inevitably will take time. Even more importantly, however, new barriers to trade within the island of Ireland are rightly feared by the Irish government as a potential threat to the existing level of economic, social and political integration in the island of Ireland, to which the Good Friday Agreement of 1998 made a decisive contribution.

Supported by the rest of the EU, the Irish government has made it a central objective of the Brexit negotiations for the EU side to ensure that whatever the general trading arrangement between the UK and the EU after Brexit there will be arrangements applicable to the island of Ireland that ensure genuinely frictionless interchange between Northern Ireland and the Republic. The emerging prospect of an FTA’s being the final outcome of the Brexit negotiations will certainly increase the concerns of the Irish government in this regard. If the European Union is willing to conclude with the British government an FTA agreement, that agreement must in the view of the Irish government and the EU as a whole contain provisions which protect the specific interests of the island of Ireland.


In the Joint Report of December 2017, the British government unambiguously agreed to the principle of an Irish backstop to protect these interests, but demurred at the Commission’s formulation of this principle in a draft treaty text of March, 2018.

The UK’s partners have been awaiting since that date for the proposed alternative British version of a final treaty text. There is considerable suspicion that Mrs. May’s government, under pressure from the DUP, is now unable or unwilling to come up with any text remotely acceptable to Ireland and the EU.


The interview of Boris Johnson in this weekend’s Sunday Times, describing the backstop simply as a “form of words”, “verba et praeter ea nihil”, will have fuelled this suspicion. The debacle of Salzburg strongly suggests that British officials and politicians are too much given to wishful thinking in their assessment of likely attitudes and negotiating tactics from the EU side. I can well remember from my own time in the Foreign Office the eagerness with which British officials often presented some limited congruence of views with some limited number of other EU member states on a specific issue as indicative of an unrealistically wide measure of support for the whole panoply on British ideas about the European Union. I must say in fairness to the Foreign Office that I am unable from personal experience to confirm the parallel claim that the FCO has only two underlying prescriptions, first that it is too early to say what should be done and second that it is too late do anything about it, with only a minimal temporal gap between the two.


There are recent suggestions that the British government is preparing to make further concessions on the Irish issue. If these reports are correct, the suggestion that the UK could remain indefinitely in a form of Customs Union with the EU will arouse opposition from the DUP and many Conservative MPs, while being uncertain of acceptance by the EU.

​The dependence of the British government on the DUP to sustain its minority government has drastically undermined Mrs May ‘s scope for flexibility in this field. There are moreover many in the Conservative Party actively working to prevent any Withdrawal Agreement and controversy over the “backstop” is for them a welcome pretext for frustrating the negotiating process. Much of the Conservative press has spent the past eighteen months claiming that the Irish government is pursuing an agenda of Irish reunification by exaggerating the objective problems caused for the island of Ireland by an FTA or similar outcome to the Brexit negotiations.


Any original European desire to help Mrs. May and her government in managing the self-inflicted wound of Brexit is now much diminished by months of evasion and incoherence on the British side. It may well be that some on the EU side overestimate the likelihood of British concessions on this issue. But there will equally be many who regard with distaste what they see as British attempts at blackmail, particularly when that blackmail is attempted in a fraught situation exclusively created by the British themselves. Mrs. May seemed to associate herself with this bizarre misconception earlier in the week, arguing that the EU had an obligation to follow her interpretation of the outcome of the 2016 referendum held In the United Kingdom.

Although Ireland is the most intractable set of problems relating to the Brexit negotiations, there is another cluster of problems that may well prevent the House of Commons from accepting whatever agreement Mrs. May might present to Parliament later this year.

​This concerns the so-called divorce bill, which will oblige the United Kingdom to continue paying its contribution to the budgetary system of the EU until the end of the projected “transition period” in December 2020 and beyond. This payment was presented by David Davis in early 2018 as a highly contentious issue, but it was one which was rapidly settled by British concession.

As a pretext for this ignominious retreat, the British government has presented this divorce bill as being a quid pro quo for a favourable future trading arrangement. Seen from the EU side, there is no truth at all in this conjunction.
 The UK agreed in 2013 to the current EU budget until 2020 and there is no sympathy in Brussels or national capitals for the view that meeting British obligations under the current budget creates any reciprocal obligation on the EU.

The Withdrawal Agreement regulating British withdrawal from the Union and the Political Declaration pointing towards the future trading relationship will have no conditionality between the two documents.

When this reality is spelt out the House of Commons later in the year, it will be yet another unwelcome difficulty for the Prime Minister to surmount in winning her “meaningful vote.”

Nor can it be guaranteed that the contents of the Political Declaration will greatly commend themselves to the House of Commons. Opinion within the EU 27 has recently been hardening on the subject of the Declaration and its specificity.

The more specific the Declaration is, the clearer it will make to Parliamentarians that the future trading relationship between the UK and the EU will be much less favourable than currently, and its terms will be set essentially by the EU. Sherlock Holmes once remarked to Dr. Watson that the giant rat of Sumatra was a story for which the world “is not yet prepared.” The House of Commons is in the same situation with regard to the overall outcome of the Brexit negotiations.


Let me end with a number of conclusions and predictions about the impact of Brexit on the British state. Such conclusions and predictions can only be highly speculative. The volatility and uncertainty of the present situation is an eloquent testimony to the political tsunami unleashed by the Brexit process.

First, I find it very difficult to believe that this Conservative government can come to any Withdrawal Arrangement with the European Union.

Controversy over the Irish backstop and the divorce bill will almost certainly generate opposition within the Party so widespread as to make it politically impossible for Mrs. May to conclude an agreement with the EU that will not destroy her government and irreparably divide her party.

Mrs. May has made it clear over the past three years that there is nothing more important to her than the preservation of the Conservative Party in government in something like its present format. I am sure she genuinely believes that the preservation of a Conservative government is in the high national interest. I do not however believe that the House of Commons as a whole will be prepared to acquiesce in any anarchic outcome to the Brexit negotiations.

I personally think it unlikely that there will be a General Election in the near future, because the Conservative Party and the DUP will use their majority to continue sustaining the present government, not least because of the DUP’s fear of a Corbyn-led government.

If the House of Commons wishes to act to prevent a catastrophic Brexit next year, I imagine it will consider two main options, a further referendum or a national government. I personally would welcome a national government to hold a new referendum and perhaps change the voting system------stranger things have happened. But I think it more likely that a further referendum would take place, with an extension of the Article 50 being asked for and granted.

I would be surprised if remaining in the EU were not then one of the options on the ballot paper. This new referendum would in my view be won by the “Remain” camp and the present structure of British party politics would be reconfigured probably during and certainly after the referendum campaign. The reconstructed party landscape would make easier, but by no means entirely straightforward, the UK’s future role within the European Union.


Second, the possibility cannot be ruled out that Mrs. May is able in extremis to conclude a Withdrawal Agreement with the EU, with an Irish backstop and pointing towards an FTA in future between the EU and the UK. This is obviously an intrinsically undesirable outcome for the United Kingdom and one that will leave much economic uncertainty throughout the so-called transition period. It is a million miles away from the lofty talk of a “bespoke arrangement” and frictionless trade. It is emphatically not what a large number of those voting for Brexit in 2016 thought they were voting for, which was essentially the continuation of present economic interchanges between the UK and EU.

If Mrs. May does achieve such a 
Withdrawal Agreement, I think the parliamentary arithmetic would be very tight for its acceptance or rejection. The DUP might well vote against it because of any Irish backstop it contained. There would be crypto-remainer Conservatives voting against it. There would be many perhaps most of the Labour MPs voting against it. The SNP would presumably vote against it. The ERG might well vote against it if Mrs. May presented its terms as being those contained in the “Chequers” proposals. If a Parliamentary majority could be constructed against Mrs. May’s Withdrawal Agreement, the alternatives outlined in the case of “No deal” would come into play, with a possible further option for the House of Commons to ask the government to reopen negotiations with the EU. I very much doubt whether the EU would be willing seriously to envisage such a possibility.
​

Third, if any kind of Brexit takes place, and even perhaps if Brexit does not take place, the constitutional stability of the United Kingdom will be and indeed already has been gravely undermined.

This was an issue to which Stephen Haseler was always particularly sensitive. He often spoke of the United Kingdom as an “English superstate,” the constitutional immobilism of which contained within it the seeds of its own destruction.

I should personally not be surprised if in ten years’ time Northern Ireland has ceased to be part of the United Kingdom. A “no deal” Brexit would be such a failure of English statecraft, particularly with regard to Ireland, that the credibility and viability of British rule in the Six Counties would inevitably be called into increasing question.

A majority of those voting in 2016 in Northern Ireland, going beyond the traditional Nationalist community in Ulster, wanted Northern Ireland to remain in the European Union in 2016. Scandal and division continue to plague the most outspoken representatives of Ulster Unionism in the DUP. It would be surprising if a border poll did not rapidly move up the political agenda if the UK crashes out of the EU in 2019 and a hard border has to be re- established between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic.

Even if there is a consensual Withdrawal Agreement, it can only be conditional upon an Irish backstop that will ensure that in significant ways Northern Ireland is more fully integrated into the economic life of the EU than is the rest of the United Kingdom. This economic integration must over time create pressure for political change in the island of Ireland.

Similar considerations apply to Scotland. A “no deal” Brexit would be a major shot in the arm for the Scottish National Party, and an Irish backstop for “hard Brexit” would inevitably create demands for similar treatment of Scotland. There is already a willing audience in Scotland for claims that the London government is looking to retain for itself all powers returned to the United Kingdom 
from the EU after Brexit. These complaints will inevitably grow in political prominence and resonance over the years of the “transition” period.

Fourth, whether it happens before or after Brexit, the present party political configuration of British politics cannot long be sustained.

Both the Labour and Conservative Parties are profoundly dysfunctional organizations, which have abandoned the traditional claim to present themselves to the electorate as “broad churches,” but are rather in thrall to narrow sections of their political spectrum.

The ERG dominates the Conservative Party and Momentum is increasingly tightening its grip on the Labour Party. This sectarianism is actively encouraged by the First Past the Post system, as a result of which those who feel alienated and estranged within their respective political formations see no possibility of effective political action outside the two main parties. The crippling experience of the Liberal Democrats in government has reinforced this template.

But this is an essentially rotten and fragile structure, which Brexit has laid bare. The British political system currently attempts to shoehorn six parties into three, English nationalists and cosmopolitan globalists into the Conservative Party, social democrats and uncompromising socialists into the Labour Party and economic liberals and centrists into the Liberal Democrats. When this system functions well, it certainly has merits in marginalising extremism and sectarianism, but it is a system which finds self-repair very difficult.

Brexit shows every sign of forcing this process of self-repair. Present party alignments could not survive the holding of an EU referendum. A “hard Brexit” instead of a referendum would confirm for ever the status of the Conservative Party as the flagship of English nationalism. Important elements of the traditional Conservative coalition risk being alienated by that development.

On the other side of the political spectrum already credible reports are surfacing of a new centrist party to come into being after March, 2019, peopled largely by Labour members and supporters who are unable to stomach Jeremy Corbyn.

Tribal politics favoured by the First Past the Post System bear a substantial part of the responsibility for taking us so far down the Brexit path. It would be a despairing conclusion to argue that there is no reverse from this path in the uncertainty and volatility that Brexit will inevitably continue to generate. Something has got to give and I think it will in the foreseeable future. Reality can be kept at arm’s length for a surprisingly long period of time, but when the dam is breached, the flood comes pouring in.


This has been a bleak review of the current and recent state of British politics, but I think it is one that Stephen would recognise.

I have painted a picture of an immobile, self-regarding political system which always found it difficult to respond to the interaction, on a basis of equality, with other democratic political systems in 
Europe.

This incapacity for creative political interaction is perfectly illustrated by the difficulty of the Brexit negotiations, where the British side has consistently regarded the objectively stronger EU side as being the partner in the negotiations destined only to receive their instructions once the British side had decided what they wanted from the negotiations. The insistence of Mrs. May at the recent Salzburg summit that the EU had no choice but to accept her ragged and confusing compromise agreed at Chequers was a particularly egregious example of this mindset, and evoked a predictably negative response.

Gradually, I believe, the realisation is gaining ground in this country that the United Kingdom is dealing from a position of weakness with the EU, a weakness that cannot be compensated by enthusiastic recollections of films about the Battle of Britain.

There is a saying among global trade negotiators that the world is divided between cannibals and lunch. The UK may be finding painfully that leaving the protection of the cannibals has condemned it to become lunch. It was certainly Stephen’s view that the English superstate was just as incapable of responding to new challenges internationally as it was domestically. I do not think that attempts to present the EU as uniquely responsible by its intransigence for the difficult course of the negotiations will carry much weight over time with the British public.
​

When I read in the engagement columns of the The Times that the divorce announced between the EU and the UK will not now take place, Stephen will be one of the first people in my mind. In specific memory of him, I will drink (although not simultaneously) a glass of champagne and a glass of Diet Coca Cola. Adlai Stevenson famously complained that more Americans like Coca Cola than champagne. Stephen was capable of enjoying both with equal gusto. Indeed he was a man unusually capable of passing on to others the enjoyment he derived from aspects of life. We shall not only miss his ideas, we will miss his company as well. I am happy that we have the opportunity this afternoon to remember both.

Letter to Secretary of State for the Environment: more needed than "environmental champion" to prove case for "Green Brexit"

12/11/2017

 
"This follows your article in The Sunday Telegraph about what you call a Green Brexit and proposing a statutory environmental champion. You do not, of course, need Brexit to deliver such a champion and Parliament could not bind its successors regarding its remit.

It was a step forward in the 1990s when the Conservative Government established the Environment Agency. After an uncertain start it then matured, with Barbara Young as Chief Executive, as an environmental regulator and there are perhaps two immediately pertinent issues:

1    it combined the roles of environmental regulator, environmental advocate and undertaker of major public works. While the founding Secretary of State in creating a strong unified body for the environment  might have made a step forward at the time, there is a case - with a Member State committed to the acquis - for disaggregating these functions; but

2    the Agency has not since 2010 proved effective at holding HMG at arm’s length: its operations have been more integrated with DEFRA’s.  This is not exactly reliable evidence of enduring intent as regards your proposed champion.

The terms in which you refer to EU policies do not mitigate doubt. Indeed, it is hard to resist the suspicion that you propose a champion now to try to disarm the EU in the context of Brexit by  appearing to neutralise comments of those of your closest colleagues who make no secret of their ambition to de-regulate and to undermine the precautionary principle.

Nor does talking down the EU’s environmental acquis constitute evidence of your Government’s wish and ability to do better. The practical reality has too often been of the UK government privately resisting environmental advance: might it perhaps be wiser not to provoke a reaction by disparaging the European Commission’s performance? That said, we would lobby for enhancing the power of the European Environment Agency so that it annually publishes audits of Member States’ environmental regulators in delivering compliance with the environmental acquis.

It is a fairly typical chronology that in 2013 your party resisted the EU’s proposed ban on neonicotinoids but now, following your recent announcement (which does not extend to opposing glyphosate), Conservative Party propaganda hails HMG as the bees’ saviour. The UK has too often struggled to attain EU environmental standards long regarded as a basic minimum by our most comparable EU neighbours. 

To demonstrate that a Brexit Britain would be anything other than a return to a Dirtier Britain requires satisfying a very much higher evidential burden than proposing an advocate."

Speech by Dirk Hazell to Sevenoaks & Swanley Together in Europe

11/11/2017

 

We can win the war against Brexit if we fight battles for hearts and minds simultaneously on three fronts: left, centre and right leaning voters.

In the 1980s, the Conservative Group for Europe, keenly supported by local MP Michael Fallon by the way, was the dominant force in the European  Movement.

Conservative governments tried to make Britain safer, stronger and more prosperous.
​
Conservative governments led in building up the world’s most successful ever peace project, our shared EU, which is now the world’s largest and most sustainable economy, the world’s leading social market and the world’s leading soft power.

So it’s really weird to see people I thought I’d known for more than a third of a century - Theresa May, Damian Green - going so far so fast in reverse.

Conservative voters frankly don’t expect Tory governments to:

trash the economy,

slash the police and armed forces,

make Britain a laughing stock on the world stage,

risk breaking up the UK and creating difficulty in Ireland,

put today’s interest of the Tory party ahead of tomorrow’s interest of Britain,

prioritise ideology over practical solutions for Britain’s current problems.

The Tory train is heading off the rails and over the cliff!

So long as we can stop Brexit before it happens, this Brexit fiasco as an opportunity to rebuild the British centre-right in a more traditionally moderate way offering Britain’s successor generations the best possible opportunities as European Citizens.

Brexit ideologues either fabricate a reactionary and inaccurate concept of sovereignty or pursue a largely concealed agenda of political authoritarianism and economic neoliberalism for which there is not the slightest hint of a political mandate in Britain.

These people are a blip, not the future.

The Conservative Party which I joined - and supported for a third of a century - unambiguously saw its main duty as defence of the realm from threats at home and abroad.

It accepted the distinctively European post 1945 settlement: the social market with a competitive economy and a safety net for all who needed it so everyone could become the best they could be.  

It understood that its role was not to project divisive ideology but to be a balance against, and not for, ideologies of the moment.

It understood that it should promote economic growth on a basis promoting civil harmony.

An enduring if not always endearing feature of Toryism was also its resolutely magnetic attraction to power, yes supporting hierarchy at home, clinging to the USA as the Empire slipped away, but also within Europe working constructively within the leading political family, the EPP, and leading the rebuilding of Europe’s economic and geopolitical strength and unification of free Europe. 

All this today is subordinated to an ideological quest for Brexit after an over-interpreted and poorly conducted advisory referendum.

Not surprisingly, given his experience as wartime PM, Winston Churchill - Conservative - wanted a United States of Europe and said in 1948 We cannot aim at anything less than the Union of Europe as a whole.

Our opponents say he didn’t want Britain to join in, but they’re factually wrong. He expressly supported Macmillan’s government in applying for membership.
​
And Macmillan - Conservative PM - said in 1962 that Britain wanted to be part of Europe together moving forward from an economic to a political union.

It was never just a market. This was always about rebuilding, as fellow democracies in partnership, Europe’s geopolitical capacity after devastating European civil war.

Edward Heath - Conservative PM - of course took Britain in.

Thatcher - Conservative PM - got Europe to agree our blueprint for a single market  but perhaps even more significantly said that the main reason for being in Europe was peace and security.

She said The more closely we work together … the better our security will be from the viewpoint of the future of our children.

She also noted that being in Europe gave Britain a world role.

This is so … Tory!

And also, after the first direct elections to the European Parliament in 1979, it was Tory MEPs who strengthened the Parliament by, for example, reproducing Parliamentary Questions on the Westminster model.

Even Theresa May, before the referendum, stated that Britain would be more prosperous, more secure and more influential  inside Europe.

Her speech of 25 April 2016 while unhelpful on human rights was in some ways a classic Conservative statement about Europe. It’s available on the Home Office website. It’s worth reading.

She spoke approvingly of the need to be in the EU to access the European Arrest Warrant and she claimed credit for the Passenger Name Records Directive, boasting that it could not have happened without British leadership and influence.

She spelled out Britain’s opportunities in the single market, noting that outside the EU London’s position as the world’s leading financial centre would be in danger.

She went into some detail about how difficult it would be to negotiate remotely acceptable trading agreements outside the EU.

And there were two other Tory themes: 
But if Brexit isn’t fatal to the European Union, we might find that it is fatal to the union with Scotland.
But it shouldn’t be a notable exception when Britain leads in Europe: it should become the norm.
I believe the case to remain a member of the European Union is strong she concluded.

She’s become a PM who spends her time and our money obsessing on what she knows to be wrong for Britain.

Her “Brexit means Brexit” faustian pact to get into No 10 is her personal tragedy.

It must not become Britain’s tragedy.

With the help of events and with heroic effort we - local people leading locally across Britain - have a chance to turn this round.

I’ll conclude if I may with a more partisan observation.

After the referendum, our intuition was that Tory MPs would become vulnerable to a pro-EU centre-right challenge in constituencies which are both Conservative and pro-Europe. 

We did our own opinion polling before the General Election  and, without going into more detail, that confirmed our intuition. We believe this effect will get stronger and spread through 2018.
So I end by returning to my first sentence.

If there’s a General Election next year, Stop Brexit should be top priority.

We can and must win!

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